Destiny 2: Vex Mitoclast Drop Rate Calculated and Very Low

The Vex Mythoclast is an incredibly popular Exotic weapon in Destiny 2 right now. It's an energy fusion rifle with an "optimal" time-to-kill speed said to be around .77 seconds, faster than other weapons in Destiny 2, including popular hand cannons like Thorn. There is on

The Vex Mythoclast is an incredibly popular Exotic weapon in Destiny 2 right now. It's an energy fusion rifle with an "optimal" time-to-kill speed said to be around .77 seconds, faster than other weapons in Destiny 2, including popular hand cannons like Thorn. There is only one problem though: there is only one way to earn the Vex Mythoclast, which is by executing a certain Vault of Glass raid encounter and destroying the Atheon boss until he falls. Destiny 2 players believe they have worked out the odds of this downfall, and it's safe to say the odds are not in the players' favor.


In an incredible example of "Doing the math", Redditor nutty-max wrote an extensive analysis that breaks down what he believes to be the drop rate of Vex Mythoclasts. It solved this using data pulled from nearly 10,000 Destiny 2 player inventories, which were available to read through the Bungies API. Using this data, nutty-max concluded that a player's first Vault of Glass run resulted in a 1% drop rate for the Vex Mythoclast, but that's not the whole story. Further analysis led nutty-max to believe that while the initial Vault of Glass run may have a drop rate of only 1%, there appears to be a "bad luck" system to increase drop rates of players over time. If the player returns to the Vault of Glass a week later, their chances of acquiring Vex Mythoclast from Atheon will increase by 0.05%. As such, each week you will increase the odds by half a percentage.

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While this may seem like an overly punishing routine at first, nutty-max is doing gamers a favor and shows how this system can be better than, say, a fixed 5% drop rate for Vex Mythoclast. It is true that the 5% drop rate will be faster overall for the first 6,000 players to find the weapon in 20 races, but the next 4,000 may prefer the bad luck system. That's because with the 5% flat, it's possible to run 80 Vault of Glass raids and still not have the weapon, while the 1% .05% per week system will ensure everyone has their weapon within 45 weeks.


Obviously, for most Destiny 2 players, either option sounds like a nightmare. The ability to run Atheon 45 times vs. 80 times is not an attractive possibility by any means. Still, it's kind of a Bungie to pick the option that keeps players from getting very unlucky. Perhaps the wacky math will persuade some Destiny 2 players to settle for their Thorn, rather than farm a Vex Mythoclast, in the end.


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